Calls

Calls are trades Polywhaler flagged as suspicious at the time that went on to win. This feed is the closest thing the product has to a scoreboard for its own insider model.

What vindication means#

When a trade lands, it gets an insider score based on what was knowable then: the size, the odds being taken, the timing against the market's resolution date, and the wallet's history. That is a guess.

When the market eventually resolves, the guess can be marked. A trade that scored high on insider risk and won is vindicated. It does not prove anything about a single wallet, but a steady stream of them is evidence the scoring is pointed at something real.

  • It was a buy at under 30¢, so the market thought it unlikely.
  • Its insider score was above 40 when it was placed.
  • The market then settled in the trader's favor.

Note

Outcomes are resolved every four hours, and only markets that settled in the previous three days are marked, so a call shows up close to when it happened rather than weeks later. That includes markets that settle before their end date, such as a "by June 30" question resolved in May: flagged trades are checked while their market is still open. A trade in a market that has not settled is not vindicated, it is just unresolved.

The feed#

The Calls tab on Home lists them newest first. Sports and esports are excluded, as they are on Home: they resolve constantly and would bury the ones worth reading.

  • The numbers up top: calls, total profit, median return and median lead time. They follow whatever you have filtered to.
  • Filters: 7D, 30D, 90D or All by settle date, market categories, and a search over markets and traders.
  • Sorting: by profit, return, insider score, how early the call was, or when it settled.
  • Early by: how long before the market settled the trade was placed. The longer it is, the harder the call was to make on news alone.

It is the best entry point into the leaderboard. A wallet that shows up here more than once is worth opening: those carry a count beside their name, and the widest layout lists them as repeat winners.

Through the API#

  • GET /v1/outcomes?vindicated=true returns the same set, with the scores and the resolution attached.
  • The trade.vindicated webhook fires when a flagged trade is marked, so you do not have to poll for it.

Quant tier

Both are Quant tier. See the Developer API page.