Docs

Vindicated

A vindicated trade is one Polywhaler flagged as suspicious at the time, which then turned out to be right. It is the closest thing the product has to a scoreboard for its own insider model.

What vindication means#

When a trade lands, it gets an insider score based on what was knowable then: the size, the odds being taken, the timing against the market's resolution date, and the wallet's history. That is a guess.

When the market eventually resolves, the guess can be marked. A trade that scored high on insider risk and won is vindicated. It does not prove anything about a single wallet, but a steady stream of them is evidence the scoring is pointed at something real.

Note

Vindication is decided when outcomes are resolved, which runs daily. A trade in a market that has not settled is not vindicated, it is just unresolved.

The feed#

The Vindicated tab on Home lists them newest first. Sports and esports are excluded, as they are on Home: they resolve constantly and would bury the ones worth reading.

It is the best entry point into the leaderboard. A wallet that shows up here more than once is worth opening.

Through the API#

  • GET /v1/outcomes?vindicated=true returns the same set, with the scores and the resolution attached.
  • The trade.vindicated webhook fires when a flagged trade is marked, so you do not have to poll for it.

Quant tier

Both are Quant tier. See the Developer API page.