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Orca · Polymarket simulator and paper trading

Polymarket Insider Trading Tracker

Polymarket whale buys that look informed, refreshed every few minutes. Polywhaler scores every buy for insider risk from 0 to 100 as it comes in, from the stake against its odds, the kind of market, its share of the market's volume, the wallet's age and the timing. These are the buys of $10,000 or more scoring above 40, highest first. Sports are left out.

Flagged, last 24h
22
5 events
Flagged, last 7 days
113
65 wallets
High risk, 7 days
0
Scored above 70
Flagged money, 7 days
$2.7M
20 events

Flagged in the last 24 hours

Buys scoring above 40, highest score first. Open a trade to see the points each factor gave.

Sort byInsider score out of 100: medium above 40, high above 70
Insider score out of 100: medium above 40, high above 70Sorted descending.
Price paid per share: the chance the market gave the outcome at the time
66Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 26¢, open trade · One2677 · 14h ago

One2677
$39,900
26¢
14h ago
62Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 21¢, open trade · Neria148 · 10h ago

Neria148
$30,859
21¢
10h ago
55Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 26¢, open trade · One2677 · 11h ago

One2677
$14,900
26¢
11h ago
50Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 16h ago

GDJHAV
$22,229
7¢
16h ago
50Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 16h ago

GDJHAV
$28,990
7¢
16h ago
47Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 10h ago

GDJHAV
$27,440
7¢
10h ago
47Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 25¢, open trade · elipipo · 10h ago

elipipo
$13,199
25¢
10h ago
47Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 22¢, open trade · pikachusplace · 13h ago

pikachusplace
$25,000
22¢
13h ago
46Medium

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Bought Yes at 37¢, open trade · tiya1 · 20h ago

tiya1
$10,836
37¢
20h ago
45Medium

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Bought Yes at 33¢, open trade · UA2 · 10h ago

UA2
$11,000
33¢
10h ago
45Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · Bland-Brook · 15h ago

Bland-Brook
$20,174
28¢
15h ago
44Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought No at 44¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 17m ago

dromedaryy
$62,275
44¢
17m ago
44Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 40¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 4h ago

dromedaryy
$60,000
40¢
4h ago
44Medium

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 20¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 6h ago

dromedaryy
$14,593
20¢
6h ago
43Medium

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought No at 7¢, open trade · timetowander · 10h ago

timetowander
$13,986
7¢
10h ago
43Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 22¢, open trade · YarinZz · 10h ago

YarinZz
$10,620
22¢
10h ago
43Medium

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought No at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 16h ago

GDJHAV
$13,965
7¢
16h ago
42Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 26¢, open trade · Mushy-Shine-Campus · 7h ago

Mushy-Shine-Campus
$13,113
26¢
7h ago
42Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 30¢, open trade · Mushy-Shine-Campus · 7h ago

Mushy-Shine-Campus
$17,627
30¢
7h ago
42Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 24¢, open trade · Dense-Breadfruit · 8h ago

Dense-Breadfruit
$12,000
24¢
8h ago
41Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 35¢, open trade · andrealax · 7h ago

andrealax
$13,455
35¢
7h ago
41Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · Mushy-Shine-Campus · 15h ago

Mushy-Shine-Campus
$10,000
28¢
15h ago

Sorted by Score, descending

Flagged this week

The 50 highest-scoring of 113 flagged buys in the last seven days.

Sort byInsider score out of 100: medium above 40, high above 70
Insider score out of 100: medium above 40, high above 70Sorted descending.
Price paid per share: the chance the market gave the outcome at the time
66Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 26¢, open trade · One2677 · 14h ago

One2677
$39,900
26¢
14h ago
66Medium

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Bought Yes at 9¢, open trade · whoareyoun · 6d ago

whoareyoun
$50,000
9¢
6d ago
65Medium

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Bought No at 33¢, open trade · thesingularityisnear · 5d ago

thesingularityisnear
$151,240
33¢
5d ago
64Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 29¢, open trade · Dmi47 · 30h ago

Dmi47
$15,400
29¢
30h ago
62Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 21¢, open trade · Neria148 · 10h ago

Neria148
$30,859
21¢
10h ago
62Medium

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Bought Yes at 8¢, open trade · thesingularityisnear · 3d ago

thesingularityisnear
$64,000
8¢
3d ago
62Medium

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 20¢, open trade · wagwanshawty · 4d ago

wagwanshawty
$15,126
20¢
4d ago
62Medium

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Bought Yes at 8¢, open trade · thesingularityisnear · 5d ago

thesingularityisnear
$75,478
8¢
5d ago
61Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 29¢, open trade · Dmi47 · 30h ago

Dmi47
$14,400
29¢
30h ago
61Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 30¢, open trade · bigbeliever · 2d ago

bigbeliever
$30,000
30¢
2d ago
61Medium

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Bought No at 16¢, open trade · tetrose · 2d ago

tetrose
$26,717
16¢
2d ago
61Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · slingerbit · 7d ago

slingerbit
$30,499
28¢
7d ago
60Medium

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Bought No at 33¢, open trade · thesingularityisnear · 5d ago

thesingularityisnear
$110,503
33¢
5d ago
59Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · 0x5581...2ad5 · 42h ago

0x5581...2ad5
$18,994
28¢
42h ago
58Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought No at 22¢, open trade · eventalpha26 · 6d ago

eventalpha26
$26,812
22¢
6d ago
57Medium

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 25¢, open trade · Jmeryn · 4d ago

Jmeryn
$22,499
25¢
4d ago
57Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 30¢, open trade · OnlyBibi2026 · 5d ago

OnlyBibi2026
$29,994
30¢
5d ago
56Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 36¢, open trade · sttrewtyx · 2d ago

sttrewtyx
$31,295
36¢
2d ago
56Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 6¢, open trade · jsmythyson · 2d ago

jsmythyson
$17,928
6¢
2d ago
56Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 6¢, open trade · tetrose · 2d ago

tetrose
$12,000
6¢
2d ago
56Medium

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Bought Yes at 34¢, open trade · wisewisewind · 6d ago

wisewisewind
$30,000
34¢
6d ago
55Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 26¢, open trade · One2677 · 11h ago

One2677
$14,900
26¢
11h ago
55Medium

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought No at 7¢, open trade · jsmythyson · 36h ago

jsmythyson
$55,615
7¢
36h ago
55Medium

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · sweetspea · 3d ago

sweetspea
$13,224
7¢
3d ago
55Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought No at 17¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 3d ago

dromedaryy
$16,578
17¢
3d ago
55Medium

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 17¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 3d ago

dromedaryy
$17,880
17¢
3d ago
55Medium

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 17¢, open trade · eventalpha26 · 3d ago

eventalpha26
$17,317
17¢
3d ago
55Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought No at 20¢, open trade · gsandre · 4d ago

gsandre
$19,000
20¢
4d ago
55Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 13¢, open trade · wan123 · 7d ago

wan123
$13,000
13¢
7d ago
54Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 15¢, open trade · catatau92 · 2d ago

catatau92
$10,000
15¢
2d ago
54Medium

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Bought Yes at 34¢, open trade · 88888x88888 · 6d ago

88888x88888
$31,517
34¢
6d ago
53Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 19¢, open trade · bolsonarowin · 2d ago

bolsonarowin
$14,666
19¢
2d ago
52Medium

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Bought Yes at 46¢, open trade · Do-Not-Redeem · 6d ago

Do-Not-Redeem
$30,298
46¢
6d ago
52Medium

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Bought Yes at 45¢, open trade · bernardbulletin · 6d ago

bernardbulletin
$11,196
45¢
6d ago
52Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 32¢, open trade · Mushy-Shine-Campus · 6d ago

Mushy-Shine-Campus
$22,653
32¢
6d ago
52Medium

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Bought Yes at 9¢, open trade · whoareyoun · 6d ago

whoareyoun
$29,971
9¢
6d ago
52Medium

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Bought Yes at 34¢, open trade · whoareyoun · 6d ago

whoareyoun
$35,811
34¢
6d ago
52Medium

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought No at 13¢, open trade · jsmythyson · 7d ago

jsmythyson
$14,409
13¢
7d ago
51Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 29¢, open trade · Cinibengales · 29h ago

Cinibengales
$29,000
29¢
29h ago
51Medium

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · DeRitardo · 32h ago

DeRitardo
$10,000
28¢
32h ago
51Medium

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 25¢, open trade · Julibe · 2d ago

Julibe
$20,000
25¢
2d ago
51Medium

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Bought No at 29¢, open trade · dromedaryy · 3d ago

dromedaryy
$13,654
29¢
3d ago
50Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 16h ago

GDJHAV
$22,229
7¢
16h ago
50Medium

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought Yes at 7¢, open trade · GDJHAV · 16h ago

GDJHAV
$28,990
7¢
16h ago
50Medium

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Bought No at 6¢, open trade · jsmythyson · 2d ago

jsmythyson
$41,480
6¢
2d ago
50Medium

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Bought Yes at 31¢, open trade · Complicated-Nourishment · 3d ago

Complicated-Nourishment
$13,800
31¢
3d ago
49Medium

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Bought No at 32¢, open trade · operationcastle · 43h ago

operationcastle
$14,805
32¢
43h ago
49Medium

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bought Yes at 24¢, open trade · eventalpha26 · 3d ago

eventalpha26
$13,621
24¢
3d ago
49Medium

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Bought Yes at 35¢, open trade · whoareyoun · 6d ago

whoareyoun
$28,865
35¢
6d ago
49Medium

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Bought Yes at 28¢, open trade · Sunguyen86 · 7d ago

Sunguyen86
$18,330
28¢
7d ago

Sorted by Score, descending

Most flagged events this week

  1. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26 flagged buysPeak insider score 66
  2. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?20 flagged buysPeak insider score 62
  3. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?20 flagged buysPeak insider score 56
  4. Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?11 flagged buysPeak insider score 56
  5. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House10 flagged buysPeak insider score 66
  6. Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?7 flagged buysPeak insider score 61
  7. Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?3 flagged buysPeak insider score 52
  8. Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?2 flagged buysPeak insider score 65

Flagged trades as they land

An alert rule on the insider score sends each high-scoring buy to Discord or Telegram as it comes in. Custom rules come with Pro; the daily whale digest is free.

Set up an insider alert

More on Polywhaler

  • Insider-flagged live feed
  • Largest Polymarket trades today
  • Polymarket whale leaderboard

How the insider score works

The score is attached to a trade, not a wallet. Five factors, each with its own ceiling, add up to a number from 0 to 100:

  • Low probability, high stakes (up to 35): a large stake on an outcome the market thinks is unlikely.
  • High-risk market context (up to 20): how much private information could matter in this kind of market.
  • Market dominance (up to 20): the trade's size next to the market's volume over the last 24 hours.
  • Fresh wallet activity (up to 15): how new the wallet was when it placed the bet.
  • Suspicious timing (up to 10): how close to resolution the bet came, or an unusually large early bet on a distant event.

A score above 40 is medium risk and above 70 is high. On crypto markets the last three factors count for a quarter, because new wallets and thin volume are normal there, and a sports trade is capped at 50. The wallet's track record is not a factor: that is what the smart money score measures.

A high score is not an accusation. It says a trade is unusual for what was knowable at the time, and every trade's page shows the points each factor gave. More in how insider detection works and the scores documentation.

Questions about the insider tracker

What is the Polymarket insider trading tracker?
A live list of Polymarket whale buys that look informed. Polywhaler scores every buy for insider risk from 0 to 100 as it comes in, and this page lists the buys of $10,000 or more that score above 40 in the last 24 hours and the last 7 days, refreshed every few minutes.
How is the insider score calculated?
Five factors, each with a ceiling, add up to the score: a large stake on an unlikely outcome (up to 35 points), how much private information could matter in the market (up to 20), the trade's size against the market's last 24 hours of volume (up to 20), how new the wallet is (up to 15) and how close to resolution the bet was placed (up to 10). On crypto markets the last three count for a quarter, and a sports trade is capped at 50.
Does a high score mean someone traded on inside information?
No. It means the trade has the pattern informed trades often have, which is a reason to look closer, not proof or an accusation. Every trade's page shows the points each factor gave, so you can judge the reasons yourself.
What counts as medium and high risk?
A score above 40 is medium risk and a score above 70 is high risk, so 40 itself is low and 70 is medium. High scores are rare, and most flagged buys are medium. Trade badges, the feed's filters and alerts all use the same bands.
Which trades are scored?
Polymarket buys, as they come in. Sells and Kalshi trades are not scored. This page lists buys of $10,000 or more and leaves out sports, where a big bet on an underdog is ordinary betting and the score is capped at 50.
Is the insider tracker free?
Yes. This page, every trade's insider score and its breakdown are free, with no account needed. A free account also opens the Insider-flagged view of the live feed and the Suspicious view on Events. Alerts on flagged trades, sent to Discord or Telegram as they land, need a custom alert rule, which comes with Pro.