Cross-venue matching
Most whales trade on Polymarket. If your live portfolio runs on Kalshi, copying one means finding the same bet on a different exchange, under a different name. This is how that is decided, and how often it refuses.
Why it is needed#
A Polymarket market and a Kalshi market can describe the same real-world event with entirely different wording, different ticker conventions and different ways of splitting the outcomes. There is no shared identifier to join on.
Getting this wrong does not produce a slightly worse fill. It produces a real order on the wrong contract. So the matcher is built to refuse.
What has to agree#
Five independent checks all have to pass. Any one failing means no match, and the copy is skipped with no venue match.
- The market has to parse as a recognisable game, with two identifiable sides.
- The league has to be one on the verified table. An unrecognised league is a refusal, not a guess.
- The bet has to be a moneyline or a draw. Spreads, totals and props are out of scope.
- Both sides have to be present on the Kalshi side for the same day.
- The implied probabilities have to be close enough. Two markets on the same game at very different prices are more likely to be different markets than a free lunch.
Note
When it refuses#
A refusal shows up in the auto-copy decision log. If a Kalshi portfolio is copying a Polymarket whale and almost nothing is getting through, cross-venue matching is usually why, and the honest fix is to run the portfolio on the same venue as the whale rather than to loosen anything.