• Predicted price: the model's median forecast for the selected horizon, with the expected move from spot next to it. The horizon tabs show the real date each forecast targets.
• Confidence: a 0 to 100 score. It rises when many independent, liquid markets agree with each other and falls when evidence is thin or contradictory.
• Bear / Base / Bull: the 10th percentile, median, and 90th percentile of the fitted distribution. A four-in-five chance the price lands between Bear and Bull.
• Forecast chart: Bitcoin's price history flowing into the forecast path, wrapped in 50, 80, and 95 percent probability bands that widen with time.
• Probability distribution (Pro): the implied density of future prices for the selected horizon, plus the chance Bitcoin ends above key round levels.
• Supporting markets (Pro): every market feeding the model, with its platform, odds, strike, liquidity, volume, and the exact weight the model gave it. Sort and filter freely.
• Model insights (Pro): what changed in the last 24 hours, which markets drive the forecast, and where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree.

Prediction markets already price Bitcoin levels every day: markets like "Bitcoin above $120,000 on August 15?" trade at a probability, and that probability is a point on the distribution of future prices. The engine collects every such market on both platforms, converts each price into a "chance BTC ends at or above X" observation, and fits a lognormal distribution per horizon through the weighted points.

• Markets are weighted by liquidity, trading volume, bid-ask spread, open interest, and freshness. A deep, tight, active market moves the fit; a thin one barely nudges it.
• Prices pass through a favorite-longshot correction first, because prediction markets systematically overprice extreme outcomes.
• "Will Bitcoin hit X" markets measure the running high rather than the ending price, so they are converted with a reflection approximation and given half weight.
• The same strike quoted on both platforms shares credit instead of being counted twice, and prices that violate no-arbitrage ordering are penalized and flagged.
• As markets resolve, each platform's realized accuracy feeds back into its weight, so the model slowly learns who to trust.

Confidence is not conviction about direction; it is a measure of evidence quality. A confidence of 80 with a flat forecast means the markets agree Bitcoin is going roughly nowhere. A confidence of 40 with a bullish forecast means the upside view rests on thin evidence. The score moves when markets are added, expire, or start disagreeing.

• Developer: Quant subscribers can pull the forecast, its full run history, and the supporting markets over the REST API, and subscribe to the btc_forecast.updated webhook for a push on every new run.
• The Prophet forecasts individual Polymarket events in editorial form.
• Charts shows the odds history of any single market, including the Bitcoin markets that feed this model.