Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

PoliticsPolymarketCloses Jan 1, 2028 (in 438d)

No

90.5%past 24 hours
Open in ChartsPolymarket

$1.17M from 14 whales so far. Buying and selling were close to even. 100% of the buying went to No.

No
WHALE VOLUME
$1.17M
none in the last 24h
WHALES
14
43 whale trades
BUYING
56%
of whale $

$1.17M whale $ · 14 whales

91%

$0 whale $ · 0 whales

10%

Sorted by Whale $, descending

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.